Investment divergence will lead recovery says ING
27/10/2009
Rebecca Sargent
Investment divergence will lead a global recovery away from the synchronised slowdown, ING Investment Management has claimed.
According to the investment management firm, US and Euroland growth will be above par for the rest of 2009, as investors turn to a number of asset classes and regions, although growth will return to a 'subpar' level in 2010.
Commenting, Valentijn van Niewenhuijzen, head of fixed income strategy and economics at ING IM said: "The past year has been characterised by a global synchronised slowdown and a global forceful policy response. However, the remainder of 2009 and 2010 will be characterised by divergence."
A return to investment risk has seen flows to emerging markets improve dramatically, ING IM adds, which has led to "substantial currency appreciations."
In fact, since August this year, the driving force in financial markets has shifted away from the 'recovery trade' as equities have moved up as investors returned to risky assets.
Valentijn adds: "Since August the behaviour of the markets has changed as it has become more difficult to use the recovery trade to explain all markets. Since then, the performance of risky assets has started to diverge as equities moved up, while commodities weakened and credit was surprisingly resilient and even outperformed equities on risk adjusted terms."
Explaining this, Valentijn concludes: "The most obvious explanation is that the recovery trade has been joined, and to some extent overshadowed, by a 'liquidity-trade' as ample central bank liquidity and cash positions available in money market funds or within mutual funds of relatively cautious money managers has started to flow into all asset classes that provide a yield that is in excess of cash."
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- Any income yield quoted is correct at the time of going to press. Income yields vary and are only estimates. The actual dividend income that you receive will depend upon the income payable by the underlying assets of the fund and could change, either up or down, at any time. Dividend income from an ISA will, under current legislation, be free of UK income tax. Dividend income paid from a fund not held within an ISA will be subject to income tax, which may or may not be reclaimable depending upon your circumstances and the type of investment. In some cases, there may be additional income tax to pay.
- If you choose a fund which invests overseas, there is the addition of “exchange rate” risk which could reduce any gains or increase losses if the currency moves against you.
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- Full details of the investments will be provided in the documentation/brochure sent to you and it is up to you to ensure that you fully understand the nature of the investment before proceeding. If you are at all unsure of the suitability of the type of investment, both in respect of its objectives and its risk profile, you should seek independent financial advice.
Collective investments
- Collective investments such as unit trusts are designed as medium to long term investments, for example at least five years.
- The value of your investment and the level of any income received from it can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed and you may not get back the amount of your original investment.
- Any income yield quoted is correct at the time of going to press. Income yields vary and are only estimates. The actual dividend income that you receive will depend upon the income payable by the underlying assets of the fund and could change, either up or down, at any time. Dividend income from an ISA will, under current legislation, be free of UK income tax. Dividend income paid from a fund not held within an ISA will be subject to income tax, which may or may not be reclaimable depending upon your circumstances and the type of investment. In some cases, there may be additional income tax to pay.
- If you choose a fund which invests overseas, there is the addition of “exchange rate” risk which could reduce any gains or increase losses if the currency moves against you.
- Dividend income paid from a fund not held within an ISA will be subject to income tax, which may or may not be reclaimable depending upon your circumstances and the type of investment. In some cases, there may be additional income tax to pay.
Structured Products
- Structured Products are fixed term investments and are designed so that your capital remains invested for the full term of the plan. Although it may be possible to encash your investment before the end of the term, this could mean that an early encashment charge is applied and you may not get back the full amount of your capital.
- An investment termed as a “capital guaranteed structured product” is one where the return of your capital at maturity is not dependent upon the performance of an index or another financial instrument
- An investment termed as a “capital at risk structured product” is one where the return of your capital at maturity is dependent upon the performance of an index or another financial instrument.
Specific ISA warnings
- The tax efficiency of ISAs is based on current tax law and there is no guarantee that tax rules will stay the same in the future.
- Dividend income from a stocks and shares ISA will, under current legislation, be free of further liability to UK income tax whether this is paid out or automatically reinvested.
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- Full details of the investments will be provided in the documentation/brochure sent to you and it is up to you to ensure that you fully understand the nature of the investment before proceeding. If you are at all unsure of the suitability of the type of investment, both in respect of its objectives and its risk profile, you should seek independent financial advice.
Collective investments
- Collective investments such as unit trusts are designed as medium to long term investments, for example at least five years.
- The value of your investment and the level of any income received from it can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed and you may not get back the amount of your original investment.
- Any income yield quoted is correct at the time of going to press. Income yields vary and are only estimates. The actual dividend income that you receive will depend upon the income payable by the underlying assets of the fund and could change, either up or down, at any time. Dividend income from an ISA will, under current legislation, be free of UK income tax. Dividend income paid from a fund not held within an ISA will be subject to income tax, which may or may not be reclaimable depending upon your circumstances and the type of investment. In some cases, there may be additional income tax to pay.
- If you choose a fund which invests overseas, there is the addition of “exchange rate” risk which could reduce any gains or increase losses if the currency moves against you.
- Dividend income paid from a fund not held within an ISA will be subject to income tax, which may or may not be reclaimable depending upon your circumstances and the type of investment. In some cases, there may be additional income tax to pay.
Structured Products
- Structured Products are fixed term investments and are designed so that your capital remains invested for the full term of the plan. Although it may be possible to encash your investment before the end of the term, this could mean that an early encashment charge is applied and you may not get back the full amount of your capital.
- An investment termed as a “capital guaranteed structured product” is one where the return of your capital at maturity is not dependent upon the performance of an index or another financial instrument
- An investment termed as a “capital at risk structured product” is one where the return of your capital at maturity is dependent upon the performance of an index or another financial instrument.
Specific ISA warnings
- The tax efficiency of ISAs is based on current tax law and there is no guarantee that tax rules will stay the same in the future.
- Dividend income from a stocks and shares ISA will, under current legislation, be free of further liability to UK income tax whether this is paid out or automatically reinvested.
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